Posted by
RepublicanEvangelist on Monday, November 03, 2008 6:41:02 PM
Here is a memo from McCain campaign regarding exit polling. I urge you to read it prior to tomorrow :
http://www.drudgereport.com/flashmm.htm
Basically our only hope tomorrow for a McCain win is that the polls are wrong. If they are wrong about the election in general, why would the exit polls be any more accurate? Michael Medved was discussing poll methodology today. Basically pollsters don't know how to gauge turnout among groups: Democrats, Republicans, Blacks, Whites, Catholics, etc. For example, according to Michael, Gallup says 97% of black vote are for Barack and 1% for McCain. Blacks vote traditionally about 80% DEM/20% REP. In the last cycle it was 89%/11% split. It may very well be higher but factoring nearly zero black support for McCain seems like too much. Also, never underestimate the power of peer pressure among ethnic groups. Many black people may tell pollsters they are for Obama to not want to be seen as an Uncle Tom by the black community. Some may very well pull the lever for McCain tomorrow. The same thing may happen with union workers in Pennsylvania and Ohio.
Bottom line is don't freak out if you see bad numbers tomorrow. No matter what they are going to look bad and we have a shot tomorrow with most of the battleground states even or 5 points or less down.
I was going to put up a post about bad things to expect in an Obama administration and in the country as a result but I am going to hold my powder and hope that I don't have to post it.
One final thing. Regarding individual candidates down ticket, vote the Republican ticket straight down the line. In Vegas many people were voting for McCain but didn't care for Congressman Porter. I told them that Titus may be a fine person but a vote for her is a vote for Pelosi. She will caucus with Pelosi and Pelosi will set the agenda. This is the mistake many in the South who voted for pro life Democrats in 2006 helping to elevate Pelosi to Speaker. It didn't matter that the candidates are pro life, Pelosi and the Democratic Party is not and individual representatives have very little power individually. Their power is as a group and the group leader. So if you have to hold your nose or have a stiff drink to vote for a particular candidate or McCain himself, do it, the Republic depends on you.