Posted by
RepublicanEvangelist on Thursday, October 30, 2008 3:15:50 PM
This is why I am giving up two weekends and my ever patient wife is on her own with our little ones:
This is from Jim Geraghty at the campaignspot at NRO today:
If These Numbers Are Right, You Can Almost Call Nevada For McCain Now
Campaign Spot reader Laurence notes an interesting wrinkle in the post below about Nevada. The guy doing the exit poll of those who have already voted, with 7,147 responses, puts Obama ahead, 50 percent to 48 percent.
If Republicans were a lot more of
the early voters, McCain would be nervous. If Democrats were a lot more
of the early voters, Obama should be nervous. And if they were split
even, a 50-48 Obama lead is in the neighborhood of what we would expect.
In Clark County, "through Sunday, 55 percent of early voters were Democrats, 29 percent Republicans."
"In Washoe County, 51 percent of the early voters through Sunday were Democrats, while 33 percent were Republicans."
Clark County, which includes Las Vegas and its surrounding area, has 68.7 percent of the registered voters in the state. Washoe County, which includes Reno, has 18.6 percent of the registered voters in the state.
In Clark County, Democrats hold a
46.3 percent to 32.3 percent edge in voter registration. In Washoe
County, the split is 39.2 percent Democrat, 38.7 percent Republican.
With those numbers, you would
expect Obama to be ahead by a much wider margin. Unless that poll of
the early voters was way off — and this pollster managed to reach
roughly one out of every 43 early voters; think about that when you see
a poll of 1,000 designed to represent a national voting pool of 120-130
million voters! — a considerable number of Democrats and
independents/unaffiliateds in Nevada are voting for McCain.
No pollster has had McCain ahead
in Nevada since the end of September. So why is McCain so dramatically
overperforming among early voters who are disproportionately Democrats?
10/30 12:36 PM